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Expo-Driven Growth in Dubai Economy

Dubai’s economy is seeing an upward growth trajectory at 4.5%.

Dubai will have a prosperous economy going forward with economic progress in the key sectors for this year and successful Expo 2020. Tourist attractions and major industries are experiencing positive growth, with new policies driving the economy back to its rightful place among the world’s top economies.

Data from the Dubai Statistics Centre show that the economy is growing, with a strong rebound in trade, hospitality and real estate sectors. The first quarter saw a decline of 3.7%. However, for the remaining three quarters of 2021 there was a 17.8% growth and 6.3% growth in the second and third quarters respectively.

According to Khatija Haque, head of research and chief economist at Emirates NBD Research, Dubai’s economic growth has been higher than expected, round 5.5 per cent for the full year 2021. With higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, experts expect growth to slow in 2022 to four per cent to 4.5 per cent.

The forecasts for 2022 in the Emirates NBD report are in line with the expected growth rate of the UAE economy according to estimates from the Central Bank. It's likely that growth will slow somewhat in 2022, but Dubai will continue to recover from the economic contraction of 2020.

There was an economic recession in Dubai due to the pandemic, but there has been significant economic improvement. The economy is still not back to pre-pandemic levels, even at the end of Q3 2021.

Growth Predictions Per Industry

Recent growth in real estate services was strong, and is likely to continue. Low interest rates, larger units, and foreign demand for homes in Dubai helped grow the real estate market. The wholesale and retail trade sector benefitted from the recovery of consumer demand last year. The transport and storage, manufacturing, financial services and the arts and entertainment sectors also grew last year.

The GDP contracted in the first nine months of 2021 for several sectors, including oil and gas, information and communication, government services, and construction. Oil and gas GDP declined more than -8 per cent year-on-year, information and communication contracted -1.9 per cent and the government services sector declined -2.4 per cent. Construction GDP shrank -0.7 per cent.

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